Well-th Notes – Second Week of October 2024

By Hightower Great Lakes on October 11, 2024

Milton Has an Eye on Florida

With the potential to become another “once-in-a-century” event, Hurricane Milton’s damage estimation is approaching $175 billion in a worst-case scenario.

Milton was weakening a touch on Tuesday, but still carrying 145 mph winds. The only sliver of good news is that the storm does not pose the same danger to the adjoining states that Helene hit just a week ago.[i]

U.S. Economy on Good Footing, but Markets Fearful

Equities struggled on Monday, after soaring last Friday due to the stronger than expected jobs report, and stronger than expected upward revisions.

Midday Tuesday the Dow was up slightly to 41,996, the S&P at 5,732, and the Nasdaq being the strongest of the three up more than 180 to 18,104.

Most traders note that given the strength in jobs, November’s Fed meeting will likely include no rate cut at all, after there was a 50bps cut expectation by nearly 1/3 of traders last week.[ii]

Key Borrowing Rate Sneaks North of 4%

Just days after digesting the stronger than expected September jobs report, traders were awaiting this week’s September CPI and PPI numbers out Thursday and Friday, respectively.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury was just above the 4.00% rate Tuesday, a number not seen in months. The data this week could provide hints whether the Fed will cut rates or do anything at all during the November Fed meeting.[iii]

Housing Markets Benefit from Falling Mortgage Rates

The Washington DC metro, Denver, CO, and the Raleigh, NC metro areas are expected to see the most benefit from falling mortgage rates, according to a recent study from Realtor.com.

In the study, it referenced that the DC and Denver areas have almost 75% of owner-occupied homes with a mortgage, a group that could stand to benefit from refinancing options.

Topping out the least affected metros, with the highest shares of homes without a mortgage are New Orleans, Buffalo and Pittsburgh.[iv]

Oil’s Run Takes a Breather

Oil paused its five-day streak Tuesday as fears from Middle East escalation and China signaled no additional big stimulus packages. Crude eased 5% after surging 12% over the past five sessions.

Traders are awaiting any retaliatory move from Tel Aviv against Tehran that could target Iran’s oil infrastructure.

Interestingly, Hurricane Milton’s race towards Florida does not appear to be affecting prices, as Florida does not have any refineries that could impact crude production or refined products.[v]

Amazon Prime Day Bargains

Crest 3D Whitestrips, Apple AirPods Pro 2, and a Shark Navigator Vacuum, are among the 63+ best deals being featured in Amazon’s October Prime days that are running October 8 & 9.

NBC Select has covered Prime Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday for the past five years as a comparison, and it has selected over 63 products as “the best of” this October’s Prime Day deals across every major category.[vi]

Disclosures:

Hightower Great Lakes is a group comprised of investment professionals registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Some investment professionals may also be registered with Hightower Securities, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC.

Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC. All information referenced herein is from sources believed to be reliable. Hightower Great Lakes and Hightower Advisors, LLC have not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document.

Hightower Great Lakes and Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates make no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or for statements or errors or omissions, or results obtained from the use of this information.

Hightower Great Lakes and Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates assume no liability for any action made or taken in reliance on or relating in any way to the information. This document and the materials contained herein were created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the author(s), and do not represent those of Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates.

Hightower Great Lakes and Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax or legal advice. Clients are urged to consult their tax and/or legal advisor for related questions.

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[i] Cox, Jeff, “Hurricane Milton could cause as much as $175 billion in damage, according to early estimates,” CNBC, October 8, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/hurricane-milton-could-cause-as-much-as-175-billion-in-damages-according-to-early-estimates.html. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[ii] Yeo Boon Ping, “CNBC Daily Open: U.S. economy’s fine, but markets driven by fear,” CNBC, October 8, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/cnbc-daily-open-us-economys-fine-but-markets-driven-by-fear.html. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[iii] Hur, Krystal, “ Why a key borrowing rate is above 4% again,” CNN Business, October 7, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/07/investing/benchmark-treasury-yield/index.html. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[iv] Genovese, Daniella, Housing markets that could see the biggest impact from falling mortgage rates,” FOXBusiness, October 8, 2024, https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/housing-markets-could-see-biggest-impact-from-falling-mortgage-rates. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[v] Ferré, Ines, “Oil sinks 4% as price run-up over Middle East conflict takes a pause, China stimulus disappoints,” Yahoo!finance, October 8, 2024, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-sinks-4-as-price-run-up-over-middle-east-conflict-takes-a-pause-china-stimulus-disappoints-153454812.html. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[vi] Malin, Zoe, “The 71+ absolute best October Prime Day deals to shop across every major category,” NBC select, October 8, 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/select/shopping/amazon-october-prime-day-deals-2024-rcna173960. Accessed October 8, 2024.